Forecasting
Everyone knows that prices are being set by supply and demand. In order to model this correctly we use state-of-the-art computerized ‘scrapers’ to make our lives a bit easier. These scrapers scrape certain websites for information on plant outages or maintenance. We have more than 300 of such scrapers in place.
With renewable energy the supply comes for free, as there are hardly no variable costs for wind or solar power. The main risk is in correctly forecasting the impact of weather in the Day Ahead and Intraday power prices. These risks will only increase when more renewable sources come available. Just like the cannibalization effect; a wind producer only produces when there is sufficient wind. However, it also means that you and your competitor are producing at relatively low costs. Leading to a lower power price as there is suddenly cheap produced power available. Weather is still difficult to predict, even on a T+0 or T+1 basis. So Day Ahead and Intraday power prices will only be more volatile as they currently are already with the increase of renewable power. But as a producer you can use Priogen’s proprietary Wind & Solar forecasting service to get an edge on the impact of weather on power prices and to extract more value from your assets.
Production and consumption models
Everyone knows that prices are being set by supply and demand. In order to model this correctly we use state-of-the-art computerized ‘scrapers’ to make our lives a bit easier. These scrapers scrape certain websites for information on plant outages or maintenance. We have more than 300 of such scrapers in place.
Similar to modelling production output we also model consumption data. But we also look at historical reference days. For example, perhaps the day of tomorrow looks very similar to June 12, 2015. What were the relative price levels and changes on that day? These insights give us a better understanding of what the day of tomorrow could bring us.
Weather
Priogen is proud to employ 7 highly specialised meteorologists that work with experienced traders who have a broad scope on the renewable energy market. Powered by proven analytics and state of the art pricing algorithms, our team is known to deliver the highest accuracy rates in the market. As we are self-critics, we always strive to improve the output of our models. And unlike alternatives in the market, Priogen is independent and focused on renewable energy.